Forecasting Labor Shifts in Automotive Retail

Forecasting labor 60–90 days out assumes stability. Today’s market offers anything but. When forecasts miss, even slightly, dealers feel it immediately in payroll overages, recon delays, and aging inventory.

The Cost of Getting Labor Forecasting Wrong
Traditional labor models force dealerships into difficult tradeoffs:

• Overstaffing during slow periods increases fixed overhead and compresses margins
• Understaffing during inventory surges creates recon bottlenecks and slows speed to market
• Rushed workflows impact quality, consistency, and customer satisfaction

Because hiring, onboarding, and training take time, labor can’t respond at the same pace as inventory. By the time staffing catches up, the opportunity has often passed.

Inventory Scales Instantly—Labor Does Not
Inventory acquisition can change week to week. Labor cannot.  This disconnect forces dealerships into a constant guessing game:

Neither option is sustainable long term. Both introduce unnecessary operational and financial risk.

A Strategic Shift: Forecast Outcomes, Not Headcount
Forward-thinking dealerships are reframing the problem entirely.  Instead of forecasting how many people they need, they’re forecasting how fast vehicles need to be frontline-ready. This shift moves labor from a fixed cost structure to a performance-driven one.

Key outcomes matter more than staffing charts:

This is where elastic or flexible labor models change the equation.

How OnSite Dealer Solutions Reduces Labor Forecasting Risk
By leveraging a third-party recon and make-ready partner like OnSite Dealer Solutions, dealerships don’t eliminate forecasting but they dramatically reduce its downside.

ODS allows dealers to:

• Scale labor with inventory volume, not payroll commitments
• Align recon costs per unit instead of per employee
• Maintain speed and consistency during volume spikes
• Keep internal teams focused on core dealership operations

Instead of asking “How many people do we need next month?” leadership can focus on “How quickly can we get vehicles sale-ready—regardless of market conditions?”

Executive Perspective: Why This Matters at the Leadership Level
For GMs, CFOs, and fixed-ops leaders, labor volatility directly impacts:

• Working capital tied up in aging inventory
• Forecast accuracy and budget discipline
• Operational risk during market shifts
• Customer experience and brand perception

Flexible labor models don’t just solve staffing challenges, they protect margin, preserve momentum, and create predictability where it matters most.

Final Thought: Flexibility Is the New Competitive Advantage
Labor forecasting will always be part of automotive retail. The difference is whether it remains a high-stakes gamble or becomes a controllable variable.  Dealerships that build flexibility into their recon and make-ready operations are better positioned to:

• Absorb market volatility
• Protect profitability
• Maintain speed to sale
• Execute confidently—no matter what the market brings

Call to Action
If labor forecasting feels more uncertain than ever, it may be time to rethink the model, not just the numbers.  OnSite Dealer Solutions helps dealerships reduce labor risk, improve speed to market, and maintain operational flexibility through scalable recon and make-ready support.

Learn how a flexible labor approach can strengthen your operation today by taking advantage of our complementary Dealership Labor Analysis or give us a call at 913-912-7384 and speak with a representative who can walk your dealership through our labor strategy.  


Here’s some great staffing insight and support articles from ODS: